In view of the killing of Muammar Gaddafi and the total decimation of his loyalist forces in his last stronghold Sirte, I’m republishing the following short piece that was written on March 22, 2011, and which foreshadowed the defeat of the dictator.
By Con George-Kotzabasis
The fleeing of Gaddafi and his high military echelons from his compound in Tripoli that contained a military command and control facility provides a unique opportunity and a propitious moment to Coalition strategists to bring the ceasing of hostilities and the triumph of the Opposition over the Gaddafi regime. Since it is more likely than not that the field commanders of the loyalist forces of Gaddafi are no longer directed in their operations from a command centre and acting on their own initiative, the Coalition, in the context of the destruction of Gaddafi’s military group outside Benghazi, should make the following declaration addressed directly to the field commanders, whose forces are still deployed against the Opposition: to immediately stop all military action against the latter and thus save themselves from the fate meted out to their colleagues outside Benghazi. The declaration should also clearly state that all the commanders and their troops who abided by this demand of the Coalition and the National Transitional Council will be given general amnesty and will be immune from any prosecution in the future that could be brought against the criminal deeds of the Gaddafi regime.
Also, it is of the utmost importance, that the demand of the Coalition for the ceasing of hostilities by the field commanders, does not seem to be a demand for surrender or laying down their arms, which would be completely repugnant to the pride of military commanders, but merely a truce, which moreover would provide to the latter the opportunity to consider their switching over to the Opposition from a tottering and disappearing regime. And the abandoning of the Yemeni government by its generals and their joining the protestors, should be highlighted as an example.
Hic Rhodus hic salta
I’m republishing the following piece for the readers of this new blog.
The Arab world is no longer the plaything of autocratic rulers who govern it according to their whim and fancy but is subject to a universal will for freedom.
By Con George-Kotzabasis March 07, 2011
A spectre haunts the White House the spectre of political dilettantism. While military intervention by mercenaries is taking place in Libyain support of the tottering regime of Muammar Gaddafi, the Obama administration is hesitating to involve itself directly in the historically momentous events of the country and tip critically the balance in favour of the insurgents. Instead, it is imbued with the predilection of Nero to play the fiddle while Romeis burning, i.e., Gaddafi starting the genocide of his own people. Libya provides not only a unique geopolitical opportunity for the U.S. to act on the side of justice and set a historic paradigm that could lead to the freedom of peoples from the autocracy of exploitative and murderous regimes in the Middle East and beyond, but doing so at the least expense of its own human and material resources.
In circumstances when the Gaddafi regime is too weak and unable to defend itself by its own military forces and is compelled to bring in foreign mercenaries to save itself, the U.S. does not have to invade the country by its own military forces but merely provide the insurgents with “antiaircraft systems so that they can enforce a no-fly zone over their own territory,” as Stephen Hadley, former national security adviser to the Bush administration, has suggested. Also, it could insert special operations teams, as it initially did in Afghanistanthat defeated the Taliban within five weeks, to give guidance to the rebels and render prompt information to U.S./NATO aircraft to bomb the Gaddafi military installations and forces. And as the destruction of Libyan air-defence radars and missile batteries might be required, this could be accomplished by using missiles launched from submarines and warships. Hence American footprints on the ground would be so tiny they would be hardly visible. And yet it would be the presence of this invisible American ‘phantom’ combined with the threat of using U.S. airpower that could utterly determine the defeat of the Gaddafi loyalists and its international disorganized amateurish bands of mercenaries, and lead, with almost mathematical precision, to the overthrow of the murderous regime.
And as I have said in an article of mine only a few days ago, the remarkable weakness of the regime and its total inability to defend itself by its own armed forces, as a result of widespread defections both from its military and political ranks, and its last resort to employ mercenaries for its survival, makes its ever dwindling supporters highly vulnerable to psychological warfare. A declaration of U.S./NATO of a no-fly zone and a no-use of air-defences accompanied by a clear threat that in the event that these two conditions are violated by the loyalist forces of Gaddafi, then an unexpected decimating destruction would be unleashed upon those forces by the military might of theU.S. and NATO. This in itself could bring the crumbling of the regime. It could be the most sagacious and least costly involvement by theUnited States in efficacious regime change without firing a shot.
Voila un strategie